Influence of macroeconomic indicators in the development of the Macedonian Stock Exchange – period 2017-2022 - International Scientific Journal Monte (ISJM)

Sc. Valbon Mehmedi¹

Prof. Dr. Igor Zdravkoski²

Prof. Dr. Seadin Xhaferi³

Prof. Dr. Pece Nikolovski⁴

¹ University St. Kliment Ohridski Bitola, North Macedonia

²University St. Kliment Ohridski Bitola, North Macedonia

³University of Tetova, North Macedonia

⁴University St. Kliment Ohridski Bitola, North Macedonia

Abstract

In this paper, through different methods, are analyzed the macroeconomic effects on the development of the capital market, that is, the Macedonian Stock Exchange. The regression analysis shows the relationship between the dependent variable performance of the Macedonian Stock Exchange, shown through the MBI10 stock index, and the independent variables (economic growth, inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate). Secondary data published by the State Statistics Office, the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia, and the Macedonian Stock Exchange were used. Also, within the framework of this paper, a comparative analysis of the movement of macroeconomic indicators in the given period is shown.

Through the regression analysis, it was established that the independent variables (economic growth and inflation) have a positive and significant influence (impact) on the dependent variable (the value of MBI10). While the other variables (interest rates and exchange rate) have an insignificant and negative impact on the dependent variable (the value of MBI10).

Through the comparative analysis, analyzing the quarterly data in the period 2017-2022, we can conclude that the value of the stock market index MBI10, which contains the shares of the 10 best-listed companies on the stock exchange, has been in constant growth in the last 5 years, taking into account the shocks that happened to the global economy, not neglecting the national one as well. In 2022, we have a fall in the value of the index, as a result of macroeconomic and global destabilization. In the case of interest rates, we have a slight decrease until the beginning of 2022, when interest rates begin to rise.

Keywords: Index; Securities; Interest rates; Inflation

Volume 7. No.2(2023): April – (Social Sciences Session)

ISSN 2661-2666 (Online) International Scientific Journal Monte (ISJM)
ISSN 2661-264X (Print)

DOI : 10.33807/monte.20232860

DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.33807/monte.20232860